infinsai

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.6 wins, so it did +19.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?+$26Yes · avg 16¢ → 18¢ · $187 Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?−$21Yes · avg 12¢ → 9.8¢ · $81 Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?−$6Yes · avg 21¢ → 17¢ · $23 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?+$2Yes · avg 14¢ → 16¢ · $16 Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?+$3No · avg 45¢ → 56¢ · $14 Will GameStop acquire eBay?−$14Yes · avg 13¢ → 6¢ · $12 Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?+$0Yes · avg 76¢ → 78¢ · $12 Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?−$1Yes · avg 81¢ → 76¢ · $11

Price-adjusted edge

+19.6 pts

Called / graded

2/2

Expected from price

1.6

Flagged volume

$95.7k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.1 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$42.9k

Last 30 days +$516 · $11.31M volume · 13,202 trades · since Dec 31, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$13.7k

Open P&L · 46 positions

−$80

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

662d

1316 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	2	2	1.6	+19.6 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces	LOW BUY Indiana Fever @ 99.9¢	$66.6k 4.4× usual	100%	103d ago	excluded
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 19¢	$15.2k	81%	115d ago	called
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 20¢	$13.9k	80%	116d ago	called

Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Acesexcluded

BUY Indiana Fever @ 99.9¢$66.6k

LOW infinsai · 103d ago

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

SELL Yes @ 19¢$15.2k

LOW infinsai · 115d ago

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

SELL Yes @ 20¢$13.9k

LOW infinsai · 116d ago

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