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+$963Yes · avg 89¢ → 91.5¢ · $31.5k+$155Yes · avg 94¢ → 96.2¢ · $6,790−$180Yes · avg 83¢ → 80¢ · $5,805−$118Yes · avg 90¢ → 88¢ · $4,130+$20Yes · avg 75¢ → 76¢ · $3,020+$25Yes · avg 96.3¢ → 97.1¢ · $2,913−$294Yes · avg 60¢ → 54¢ · $2,712+$77Yes · avg 79¢ → 82¢ · $1,606
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.0 wins, so it did -0.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-0.2 pts
Called / graded
2/3
Expected from price
2.0
Flagged volume
$156.0k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$4,468
Last 30 days −$1,289 · $361.5k volume · 116 trades · since Mar 12, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$6,871
Open P&L · 19 positions
−$1,905
Closed-position win rate
86%
37 closed
Wallet age · markets
226d
56 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 2 | 2.0 | -0.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW SELL No @ 91¢ | $10.3k | missed |
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW SELL Yes @ 98.7¢ | $21.4k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ | $17.0k | excluded |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.4¢ | $20.6k | excluded |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.1¢ | $15.6k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢ | $16.4k | excluded |
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 96.3¢ | $15.0k | called |
 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 98¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 95.3¢ | $19.4k | called |
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