Flipbandit

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did +8.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?+$1,788Yes · avg 83¢ → 91.5¢ · $18.7k Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?+$560No · avg 87¢ → 96.7¢ · $5,606 Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?−$103Yes · avg 82¢ → 80¢ · $4,991 Will the Democratic Party win the NH-02 House seat?+$54Yes · avg 96¢ → 97.7¢ · $3,126 Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?−$35Yes · avg 88¢ → 87¢ · $3,045 Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?−$20Yes · avg 75¢ → 74¢ · $2,980 Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?+$24Yes · avg 96.2¢ → 97¢ · $2,910 Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?−$58Yes · avg 90¢ → 88¢ · $2,012

Price-adjusted edge

+8.2 pts

Called / graded

2/2

Expected from price

1.8

Flagged volume

$31.9k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.2 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$26.6k

Last 30 days −$571 · $570.8k volume · 143 trades · since Jan 29, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$26.4k

Open P&L · 10 positions

+$602

Closed-position win rate

96%

51 closed

Wallet age · markets

633d

60 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	1	0.9	+12.0 pts
Politics	1	1	1.0	+4.4 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$11.9k	100%	200d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW BUY No @ 88¢	$10.0k	88%	200d ago	called
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	LOW BUY No @ 95.6¢	$10.0k	96%	286d ago	called

US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$11.9k

LOW Flipbandit · 200d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?called

BUY No @ 88¢$10.0k

LOW Flipbandit · 200d ago

Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?called

BUY No @ 95.6¢$10.0k

LOW Flipbandit · 286d ago

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