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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.5 wins, so it did +16.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+16.1 pts
Called / graded
2/3
Expected from price
1.5
Flagged volume
$434.0k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$156.6k
Last 30 days +$0 · $12.08M volume · 9,054 trades · since Feb 23, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$995.8k
Open P&L · 38 positions
−$75.2k
Closed-position win rate
75%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
608d
615 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | +40.0 pts |
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -31.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
 Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 69¢ | $16.7k | called |
| Spread: Seahawks (-4.5) | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 51¢ | $13.3k | called |
 Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 68¢ | $12.5k | missed |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | MED SELL Patriots @ 94.5¢ | $34.5k | excluded |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Patriots @ 69¢ | $20.0k | called |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $185.6k 9.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | MED BUY Yes @ 94.5¢ | $64.2k 3.2× usual |
called |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | MED BUY Yes @ 93.5¢ | $77.2k 3.9× usual |
called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x770202…