snols

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.3 wins, so it did -34.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?+$86Yes · avg 50¢ → 68¢ · $326 Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?+$73Yes · avg 52¢ → 82¢ · $198 Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?+$40No · avg 54¢ → 68¢ · $196 Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?+$14Yes · avg 52¢ → 76¢ · $44

Price-adjusted edge

-34.0 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

0.3

Flagged volume

$164.1k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±47.4 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$50.5k

Last 30 days +$185 · $1.88M volume · 3,478 trades · since Mar 27, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$110.5k

Open P&L · 60 positions

−$60.7k

Closed-position win rate

83%

42 closed

Wallet age · markets

212d

72 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Politics	1	0	0.3	-34.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 85¢	$13.8k	85%	138d ago	excluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢	$16.5k	82%	138d ago	excluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW SELL Yes @ 66¢	$15.4k	34%	138d ago	excluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW SELL Yes @ 64¢	$16.0k	36%	171d ago	missed
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 34¢	$15.5k	34%	171d ago	missed
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢	$26.8k	67%	186d ago	called
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	MED SELL Yes @ 66¢	$31.0k	34%	189d ago	missed
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW SELL No @ 88¢	$11.4k	12%	192d ago	missed
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	LOW BUY No @ 73¢	$17.7k	73%	204d ago	called

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?excluded

BUY Yes @ 85¢$13.8k

LOW snols · 138d ago

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?excluded

BUY Yes @ 82¢$16.5k

LOW snols · 138d ago

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?excluded

SELL Yes @ 66¢$15.4k

LOW snols · 138d ago

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?missed

SELL Yes @ 64¢$16.0k

LOW snols · 171d ago

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?missed

BUY Yes @ 34¢$15.5k

LOW snols · 171d ago

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?called

BUY Yes @ 67¢$26.8k

LOW snols · 186d ago

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?missed

SELL Yes @ 66¢$31.0k

MED snols · 189d ago

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?missed

SELL No @ 88¢$11.4k

LOW snols · 192d ago

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?called

BUY No @ 73¢$17.7k

LOW snols · 204d ago

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