millanos

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.1 wins, so it did -8.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

-8.8 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

0.1

Flagged volume

$1.30M

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.3 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$111.8k

Last 30 days +$0 · $4.71M volume · 1,637 trades · since Apr 12, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 74¢	$11.7k	74%	132d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 95¢	$10.3k	5%	138d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 94¢	$16.4k	94%	138d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 92¢	$21.5k	92%	138d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$37.9k	0%	138d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 89¢	$36.7k	89%	140d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 95.5¢	$26.7k	96%	142d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 95.4¢	$15.7k	95%	142d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 95.4¢	$34.3k	5%	142d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 93¢	$38.3k	93%	145d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$20.0k	0%	145d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 97.6¢	$20.5k	98%	146d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 97.8¢	$20.6k	2%	146d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 96¢	$26.9k	96%	147d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 95¢	$51.5k 2.0× usual	95%	147d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 94¢	$33.8k	6%	147d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	HIGH SELL No @ 91.3¢	$134.4k 5.3× usual	9%	147d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 84¢	$33.6k	84%	148d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 91¢	$54.6k 2.2× usual	91%	148d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 90¢	$25.2k	10%	148d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 90.4¢	$33.5k	10%	148d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 87¢	$28.7k	87%	149d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 93¢	$35.3k	93%	149d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 93¢	$37.2k	7%	149d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 78¢	$14.0k	78%	150d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 80¢	$13.6k	80%	150d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 95¢	$15.3k	95%	151d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 94¢	$39.4k	94%	151d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 94¢	$65.8k 2.6× usual	94%	151d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 92¢	$34.0k	92%	152d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 78¢	$15.6k	78%	152d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	MED BUY No @ 91.8¢	$68.3k 2.7× usual	92%	152d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 73¢	$90.6k 3.6× usual	27%	152d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	LOW SELL No @ 91.2¢	$11.3k	9%	154d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 80¢	$25.2k	20%	154d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 85¢	$18.5k	85%	154d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 96¢	$14.2k	96%	155d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 85¢	$13.0k	85%	156d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 81¢	$15.6k	81%	156d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 90¢	$14.1k	90%	157d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 86¢	$10.0k	86%	158d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 68¢	$20.5k	32%	170d ago	missed

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