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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.6 wins, so it did +39.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+39.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.6
Flagged volume
$12.0k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±48.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$6,665
Last 30 days −$0 · $1.35M volume · 123 trades · since Nov 20, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$6,665
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
46%
28 closed
Wallet age · markets
704d
28 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +39.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 39¢ | $12.0k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x746250…