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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.2 wins, so it did -5.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-5.1 pts
Called / graded
2/4
Expected from price
2.2
Flagged volume
$464.4k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±24.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$90.0k
Last 30 days −$2,499 · $11.12M volume · 976 trades · since Jul 02, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$1.55M
Open P&L · 44 positions
−$1.37M
Closed-position win rate
94%
50 closed
Wallet age · markets
114d
102 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 2 | 2.2 | -5.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 UFC Fight Night: Kamaru Usman vs. Dricus Du Plessis (Middleweight, Main Card) | LOW BUY Dricus Du Plessis @ 67¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
 Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox | MED BUY Boston Red Sox @ 31¢ | $85.4k 4.9× usual |
excluded |
 France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY France @ 59¢ | $37.7k 2.2× usual |
missed |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 39¢ | $18.8k | called |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 50¢ | $15.0k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ | $22.9k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW BUY Yes @ 61¢ | $11.7k | called |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 33¢ | $16.0k | missed |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW BUY United States @ 24¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW BUY United States @ 53¢ | $25.0k | missed |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW SELL United States @ 53¢ | $19.3k | called |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW BUY United States @ 55¢ | $20.0k | missed |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 51¢ | $15.0k | called |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Mexico @ 50¢ | $10.0k | missed |
| Mexico vs. England: Both Teams to Score | LOW BUY Yes @ 50¢ | $10.0k | called |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW SELL United States @ 51¢ | $38.7k 2.2× usual |
called |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | MED BUY United States @ 52¢ | $40.0k 2.3× usual |
missed |
| Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 | LOW SELL Over @ 99.9¢ | $16.1k | excluded |
| Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 64¢ | $10.0k | called |
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