← Wallets
−$3,889Yes · avg 92.5¢ → 42¢ · $3,204
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 7. The prices it paid implied about 5.2 wins, so it did -3.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 7 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-3.3 pts
Called / graded
5/7
Expected from price
5.2
Flagged volume
$173.3k
Sample size7 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$8k7 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will France win on 2026-07-09? at 63¢) and the edge is -10.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
0% vs 52% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 71% · n=3
80–100¢
67% vs 86% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$5,081
Last 30 days +$15 · $1.45M volume · 1,771 trades · since Mar 06, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$73.7k
Open P&L · 21 positions
−$78.1k
Closed-position win rate
75%
219 closed
Wallet age · markets
597d
207 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 4 | 4.3 | -5.6 pts |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +10.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will England win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $20.0k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW SELL Yes @ 39¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $20.0k | called |
| Will France win on 2026-07-09? | LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢ | $20.0k | called |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | LOW BUY Yes @ 72¢ | $15.0k | called |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? | LOW BUY Yes @ 86¢ | $15.0k | missed |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢ | $17.0k | called |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? | LOW BUY Yes @ 83¢ | $17.0k | called |
 Will Trump visit China by May 31? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢ | $10.0k | called |
 Government shutdown on Saturday? | LOW SELL No @ 97.7¢ | $13.4k | excluded |
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