← Wallets
+$1,096Yes · avg 16¢ → 18¢ · $11.5k+$7,058No · avg 13¢ → 63¢ · $8,829+$6,632Yes · avg 0.6¢ → 13¢ · $6,982+$1,326No · avg 76¢ → 94.3¢ · $6,919+$2,588No · avg 34¢ → 80¢ · $4,509+$1,758No · avg 40¢ → 72¢ · $4,048+$1,470No · avg 56¢ → 97.5¢ · $3,446+$110Yes · avg 93¢ → 96.3¢ · $3,163
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +5.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+5.1 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$338.5k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±29.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$674.4k
Last 30 days +$9,071 · $23.97M volume · 20,260 trades · since Mar 05, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.55M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$659.2k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
599d
956 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.2 | -18.0 pts |
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 0.7 | +28.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 82¢ | $10.4k | missed |
 Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $100.0k 2.6× usual |
excluded |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $39.1k | excluded |
 Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $40.0k | excluded |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | MED SELL Yes @ 71¢ | $52.6k | missed |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 72¢ | $12.7k | missed |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $11.2k | called |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢ | $51.9k | called |
 Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | LOW BUY No @ 72¢ | $20.6k | called |
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