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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.4 wins, so it did -13.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-13.7 pts
Called / graded
2/3
Expected from price
2.4
Flagged volume
$195.1k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$122.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $8.40M volume · 5,076 trades · since May 13, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 451 closed
−$105.0k
Open P&L · 3 positions
+$40
Closed-position win rate
56%
451 closed
Wallet age · markets
530d
349 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +8.2 pts |
| Other | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | -24.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 90.4¢ | $11.0k | called |
 U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $13.3k | excluded |
 Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? | LOW BUY No @ 97¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 91.8¢ | $10.1k | called |
 Will iPhone 17 cost $2,000 or more? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $55.2k 4.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will iPhone 17 cost $2,000 or more? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $55.3k 4.2× usual |
excluded |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $38.3k 2.9× usual |
missed |
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