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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +20.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+20.1 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$161.8k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±40.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$110.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $4.59M volume · 829 trades · since Apr 17, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$140.2k
Open P&L · 40 positions
−$247.4k
Closed-position win rate
70%
169 closed
Wallet age · markets
190d
202 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +20.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | LOW SELL Yes @ 27¢ | $14.5k | called |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | LOW BUY Yes @ 30¢ | $25.0k | missed |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | LOW SELL Yes @ 30¢ | $12.0k | called |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | LOW BUY Yes @ 33¢ | $18.7k | missed |
 Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Mirra Andreeva | LOW SELL Coco Gauff @ 99.9¢ | $18.7k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | LOW SELL Yes @ 32¢ | $11.7k | called |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | LOW SELL Yes @ 32¢ | $10.7k | called |
 Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante | LOW SELL Thiago Agustin Tirante @ 99.9¢ | $24.5k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $15.0k | missed |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | LOW SELL Yes @ 20¢ | $11.0k | called |
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