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degensruletheworld

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 0.4 wins, so it did -11.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?+$722No · avg 74¢ → 82¢ · $7,884
Price-adjusted edge
-11.9 pts
Called / graded
0/3
Expected from price
0.4
Flagged volume
$552.9k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$156.6k
Last 30 days −$97 · $8.15M volume · 7,000 trades · since Feb 11, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$170.1k
Open P&L · 4 positions
−$7,940
Closed-position win rate
66%
273 closed
Wallet age · markets
255d
245 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other300.4-11.9 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW SELL No @ 92¢ $12.9k8% 125d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ $49.8k
2.5× usual
100% 128d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $10.1k0% 128d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?LOW SELL Yes @ 81¢ $16.5k19% 131d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $39.9k
2.0× usual
100% 176d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $19.9k100% 176d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $49.9k
2.5× usual
0% 177d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?MED SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $174.6k
8.8× usual
0% 198d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $22.7k100% 207d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 95.3¢ $16.9k5% 207d agomissed
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $49.6k
2.5× usual
99% 211d agoexcluded
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $14.9k1% 211d agoexcluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $14.9k1% 211d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW SELL No @ 77¢ $11.6k23% 227d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $20.0k0% 236d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?MED SELL Yes @ 95.3¢ $28.6k5% 237d agoexcluded

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