JamesBonder007

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?+$165No · avg 95.1¢ → 95.5¢ · $49.5k Xi Jinping out before 2027?+$12No · avg 97.3¢ → 97.4¢ · $24.3k Trump out as President before 2027?−$26No · avg 95.9¢ → 95.8¢ · $23.9k Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?−$1No · avg 97¢ → 97¢ · $15.5k Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?−$2No · avg 97.6¢ → 97.5¢ · $13.7k Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?−$43Yes · avg 98.8¢ → 98.3¢ · $7,864 Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?−$367No · avg 85¢ → 80¢ · $6,842 Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?+$2No · avg 98.7¢ → 98.8¢ · $4,938

Price-adjusted edge

—

Called / graded

0/0

Expected from price

0.0

Flagged volume

$1.86M

Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$31.9k

Last 30 days +$428 · $10.26M volume · 2,664 trades · since Mar 04, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$32.0k

Open P&L · 14 positions

−$71

Closed-position win rate

98%

123 closed

Wallet age · markets

233d

135 markets traded

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$135.1k	100%	56d ago	excluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$169.5k	100%	87d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢	$24.9k	100%	114d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$94.4k	100%	129d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$39.9k	100%	149d ago	excluded
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$17.9k	99%	151d ago	excluded
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$438.3k 4.6× usual	100%	155d ago	excluded
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	LOW BUY No @ 99¢	$24.8k	99%	157d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢	$104.4k	100%	176d ago	excluded
Trump out as President by April 30?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$54.6k	0%	176d ago	excluded
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$28.1k	0%	176d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$223.9k 2.4× usual	100%	180d ago	excluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$150.0k	100%	187d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$179.5k	100%	201d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$99.4k	100%	205d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$62.4k	100%	206d ago	excluded
Netanyahu out by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$14.9k	99%	210d ago	excluded

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?excluded

BUY No @ 99.8¢$135.1k

LOW JamesBonder007 · 56d ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 99.7¢$169.5k

LOW JamesBonder007 · 87d ago

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?excluded

BUY No @ 99.7¢$24.9k

LOW JamesBonder007 · 114d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$94.4k

LOW JamesBonder007 · 129d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?excluded

BUY No @ 99.8¢$39.9k

LOW JamesBonder007 · 149d ago

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?excluded

BUY No @ 99.4¢$17.9k

LOW JamesBonder007 · 151d ago

Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$438.3k

LOW JamesBonder007 · 155d ago

Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?excluded

BUY No @ 99¢$24.8k

LOW JamesBonder007 · 157d ago

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.6¢$104.4k

LOW JamesBonder007 · 176d ago

Trump out as President by April 30?excluded

SELL No @ 99.8¢$54.6k

LOW JamesBonder007 · 176d ago

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?excluded

SELL No @ 99.9¢$28.1k

LOW JamesBonder007 · 176d ago

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$223.9k

LOW JamesBonder007 · 180d ago

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$150.0k

LOW JamesBonder007 · 187d ago

US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$179.5k

LOW JamesBonder007 · 201d ago

US forces enter Iran by March 31?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$99.4k

LOW JamesBonder007 · 205d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$62.4k

LOW JamesBonder007 · 206d ago

Netanyahu out by March 31?excluded

BUY No @ 99.4¢$14.9k

LOW JamesBonder007 · 210d ago

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