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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +10.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+10.4 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$222.7k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±30.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$23.4k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.80M volume · 1,310 trades · since Sep 29, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$19.9k
Open P&L · 72 positions
−$41.2k
Closed-position win rate
72%
90 closed
Wallet age · markets
390d
157 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +10.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $19.8k | excluded |
 Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ | $22.9k | excluded |
| Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $22.9k | excluded |
 Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ | $22.3k | excluded |
| Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ | $22.4k | excluded |
| Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ | $19.8k | excluded |
| Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $19.8k | excluded |
 Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
| Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ | $11.0k | excluded |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢ | $13.4k | called |
 Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $18.8k | excluded |
| Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ | $18.8k | excluded |
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