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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 0.6 wins, so it did +84.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+84.0 pts
Called / graded
4/4
Expected from price
0.6
Flagged volume
$288.5k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$4
Last 30 days −$0 · $17.61M volume · 44,741 trades · since May 03, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$14
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
51%
91 closed
Wallet age · markets
174d
77 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 4 | 0.6 | +84.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Epstein suicide note released by May 8? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $46.5k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL No @ 84¢ | $17.5k | called |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL No @ 84¢ | $13.2k | called |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL No @ 84¢ | $20.5k | called |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED SELL No @ 82¢ | $39.0k | missed |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 15¢ | $17.9k | called |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $20.5k | called |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $16.6k | called |
 QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $96.7k 4.7× usual |
excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x4a6501…