nellbear

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

—

Called / graded

0/0

Expected from price

0.0

Flagged volume

$49.5k

Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$8,807

Last 30 days +$0 · $1.20M volume · 197 trades · since Oct 23, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$148.5k

Open P&L · 44 positions

−$139.7k

Closed-position win rate

100%

61 closed

Wallet age · markets

366d

105 markets traded

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	LOW SELL Yes @ 20¢	$14.4k	80%	199d ago	missed
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	LOW BUY Yes @ 17¢	$12.1k	17%	201d ago	called
Pelicans vs. Lakers	LOW BUY Lakers @ 72¢	$12.5k	72%	235d ago	excluded
Lakers vs. Warriors	LOW SELL Lakers @ 99.9¢	$10.5k	0%	238d ago	excluded

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?missed

SELL Yes @ 20¢$14.4k

LOW nellbear · 199d ago

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?called

BUY Yes @ 17¢$12.1k

LOW nellbear · 201d ago

Pelicans vs. Lakersexcluded

BUY Lakers @ 72¢$12.5k

LOW nellbear · 235d ago

Lakers vs. Warriorsexcluded

SELL Lakers @ 99.9¢$10.5k

LOW nellbear · 238d ago

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