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+$2,588Yes · avg 9.2¢ → 16¢ · $6,299+$155Yes · avg 9.9¢ → 11¢ · $1,145+$25Yes · avg 12¢ → 12¢ · $625
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.3 wins, so it did -8.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-8.7 pts
Called / graded
2/4
Expected from price
2.3
Flagged volume
$156.7k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$94.7k
Last 30 days +$957 · $5.53M volume · 5,785 trades · since Oct 19, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$69.5k
Open P&L · 27 positions
−$24.2k
Closed-position win rate
56%
54 closed
Wallet age · markets
735d
73 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 2 | 2.3 | -8.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW SELL Spain @ 91.2¢ | $22.7k | excluded |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Spain @ 74¢ | $18.5k | excluded |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 58¢ | $29.5k 2.3× usual |
missed |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 16¢ | $15.0k | missed |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 18¢ | $13.6k | missed |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 10¢ | $10.5k | missed |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 11¢ | $11.6k | called |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 23¢ | $11.5k | called |
 Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW SELL Yes @ 35¢ | $11.2k | missed |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW SELL Yes @ 25¢ | $12.5k | called |
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