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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +4.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+4.5 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$105.7k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$214
Last 30 days +$0 · $273.9k volume · 145 trades · since Nov 09, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$214
Open P&L · 4 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
90%
105 closed
Wallet age · markets
349d
101 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +4.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ | $23.9k | excluded |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ | $23.7k | excluded |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ | $23.6k | excluded |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ | $23.4k | excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 95.5¢ | $11.1k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x3e1349…