lirio123

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +13.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?+$1,430Yes · avg 12¢ → 14¢ · $13.9k Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?+$32Yes · avg 2.2¢ → 2.8¢ · $160

Price-adjusted edge

+13.0 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.9

Flagged volume

$10.1k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±33.6 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$25.7k

Last 30 days +$1,651 · $553.7k volume · 836 trades · since Jun 26, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

−$7,167

Open P&L · 18 positions

−$20.7k

Closed-position win rate

67%

6 closed

Wallet age · markets

120d

23 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	1	0.9	+13.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	LOW BUY No @ 87¢	$10.1k	87%	101d ago	called

Israel closes its airspace by July 31?called

BUY No @ 87¢$10.1k

LOW lirio123 · 101d ago

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