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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.6 wins, so it did +41.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+41.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.6
Flagged volume
$33.9k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$9,085
Last 30 days −$0 · $725.7k volume · 621 trades · since Jun 16, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$29.4k
Open P&L · 102 positions
−$38.2k
Closed-position win rate
77%
256 closed
Wallet age · markets
130d
351 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | +41.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW SELL Yes @ 41¢ | $10.2k | called |
 LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner | LOW SELL Hanwha Life Esports @ 99.9¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
| Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance | LOW SELL Argentina @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x3ae40b…