ks788ds

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did +29.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?−$1Yes · avg 19¢ → 17¢ · $8

Price-adjusted edge

+29.0 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.7

Flagged volume

$13.5k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±45.4 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$83.2k

Last 30 days −$6,178 · $236.4k volume · 137 trades · since Sep 19, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

−$70.2k

Open P&L · 3 positions

−$12.9k

Closed-position win rate

43%

14 closed

Wallet age · markets

36d

17 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	1	1	0.7	+29.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result	Open on Polymarket
Colts vs. Chiefs	LOW BUY Chiefs @ 71¢	$13.5k	71%	34d ago	called

Colts vs. Chiefscalled

BUY Chiefs @ 71¢$13.5k

LOW ks788ds · 34d ago

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