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+$337No · avg 92¢ → 92.5¢ · $62.3k−$1,028No · avg 84¢ → 82¢ · $38.1k+$500No · avg 92¢ → 94.5¢ · $18.9k · 1 proven with, 0 against+$106No · avg 71¢ → 72¢ · $4,028 · 1 proven with, 0 against+$400No · avg 84¢ → 94¢ · $3,760+$75Yes · avg 73¢ → 74¢ · $3,725+$214Yes · avg 84¢ → 93¢ · $2,207+$6Yes · avg 80¢ → 91.5¢ · $51
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$236.9k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$100.9k
Last 30 days −$8,630 · $37.78M volume · 34,924 trades · since Jun 22, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$296.2k
Open P&L · 8 positions
+$610
Closed-position win rate
64%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
1220d
416 markets traded
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $29.9k | excluded |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | MED SELL No @ 91¢ | $25.4k | missed |
 US forces enter Iran by April 30? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ | $94.8k 6.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY No @ 74¢ | $12.7k | called |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW SELL No @ 93¢ | $13.9k | missed |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $18.3k | called |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | LOW SELL No @ 77¢ | $15.4k | missed |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 85¢ | $12.3k | missed |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢ | $14.3k | called |
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