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aaaaaag

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.0 wins, so it did +24.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+24.1 pts
Called / graded
3/4
Expected from price
2.0
Flagged volume
$185.6k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±10.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$8,242
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.47M volume · 908 trades · since Mar 12, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
−$8,211
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$31
Closed-position win rate
73%
94 closed
Wallet age · markets
226d
95 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other332.0+34.2 pts
Economy100.1-6.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ $12.5k0% 111d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?LOW BUY No @ 99.3¢ $10.8k99% 131d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $17.1k0% 152d agoexcluded
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $15.2k0% 153d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.1¢ $10.5k98% 161d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $10.5k0% 161d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $10.3k100% 178d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $10.3k0% 180d agoexcluded
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢ $10.8k99% 199d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 95.8¢ $14.4k96% 201d agocalled
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW SELL No @ 95.3¢ $10.5k5% 201d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ $12.4k97% 206d agocalled
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ $15.3k1% 211d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ $11.0k98% 214d agoexcluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 94¢ $14.1k6% 220d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?excluded
SELL No @ 99.8¢$12.5k
LOW aaaaaag · 111d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?excluded
BUY No @ 99.3¢$10.8k
LOW aaaaaag · 131d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.6¢$17.1k
LOW aaaaaag · 152d ago
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.6¢$15.2k
LOW aaaaaag · 153d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded
BUY Yes @ 98.1¢$10.5k
LOW aaaaaag · 161d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?excluded
SELL No @ 99.9¢$10.5k
LOW aaaaaag · 161d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?excluded
BUY No @ 99.7¢$10.3k
LOW aaaaaag · 178d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded
SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$10.3k
LOW aaaaaag · 180d ago
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?excluded
BUY No @ 98.7¢$10.8k
LOW aaaaaag · 199d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?called
BUY No @ 95.8¢$14.4k
LOW aaaaaag · 201d ago
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?called
SELL No @ 95.3¢$10.5k
LOW aaaaaag · 201d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?called
BUY No @ 96.9¢$12.4k
LOW aaaaaag · 206d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99.2¢$15.3k
LOW aaaaaag · 211d ago
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?excluded
BUY No @ 98.3¢$11.0k
LOW aaaaaag · 214d ago
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?missed
SELL Yes @ 94¢$14.1k
LOW aaaaaag · 220d ago

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