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+$773No · avg 86¢ → 95.5¢ · $7,773+$578Yes · avg 86¢ → 92.8¢ · $7,581+$376No · avg 80¢ → 90¢ · $3,376+$98No · avg 85¢ → 93.5¢ · $1,098
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.7 wins, so it did +12.6 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+12.6 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.7
Flagged volume
$28.0k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$3,005
Last 30 days +$151 · $197.4k volume · 31 trades · since Jan 08, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$6,152
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$3,176
Closed-position win rate
79%
19 closed
Wallet age · markets
289d
24 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 2 | 1.7 | +12.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $15.0k | called |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 86¢ | $13.0k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x3115e2…