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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.1 wins, so it did -7.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-7.6 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.1
Flagged volume
$2.00M
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±26.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$2,199
Last 30 days −$0 · $4.98M volume · 518 trades · since Oct 20, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$2,021
Open P&L · 7 positions
−$217
Closed-position win rate
57%
37 closed
Wallet age · markets
369d
43 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 0 | 0.1 | -7.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? | MED SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $661.3k 14.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $13.1k | excluded |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? | MED SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $1.13M 24.2× usual |
excluded |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $44.0k | excluded |
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99¢ | $49.6k | excluded |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢ | $41.9k | excluded |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢ | $50.4k | excluded |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | LOW BUY No @ 7.6¢ | $10.2k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x2f82b8…