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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did +6.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+6.5 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.9
Flagged volume
$69.3k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$7
Last 30 days +$1 · $229.7k volume · 199 trades · since Jan 31, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$7
Open P&L · 3 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
96%
91 closed
Wallet age · markets
267d
86 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 2 | 2 | 1.9 | +6.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $14.6k | called |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ | $15.4k | excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 98.1¢ | $20.6k | excluded |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $18.8k | called |
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