0x25d5…104b

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.6 wins, so it did -59.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

-59.0 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

0.6

Flagged volume

$245.6k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.2 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$25.1k

Last 30 days +$0 · $750.0k volume · 28 trades · since Jun 18, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

−$17.6k

Open P&L · 2 positions

−$7,329

Closed-position win rate

40%

10 closed

Wallet age · markets

128d

12 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	1	0	0.6	-59.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance	LOW BUY France @ 59¢	$20.7k	59%	101d ago	missed
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 39¢	$21.5k	61%	103d ago	called
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 39¢	$21.4k	39%	106d ago	missed
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED SELL Yes @ 35¢	$54.4k 2.5× usual	65%	113d ago	called
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 35¢	$26.5k	35%	113d ago	missed
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 33¢	$21.0k	33%	115d ago	missed
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	LOW SELL Yes @ 64¢	$15.7k	36%	123d ago	excluded
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	MED SELL Yes @ 70¢	$30.7k	30%	128d ago	excluded
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢	$33.7k	77%	128d ago	excluded

France vs. Spain: Team to Advancemissed

BUY France @ 59¢$20.7k

LOW 0x25d5…104b · 101d ago

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

SELL Yes @ 39¢$21.5k

LOW 0x25d5…104b · 103d ago

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

BUY Yes @ 39¢$21.4k

LOW 0x25d5…104b · 106d ago

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

SELL Yes @ 35¢$54.4k

MED 0x25d5…104b · 113d ago

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

BUY Yes @ 35¢$26.5k

LOW 0x25d5…104b · 113d ago

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

BUY Yes @ 33¢$21.0k

LOW 0x25d5…104b · 115d ago

Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?excluded

SELL Yes @ 64¢$15.7k

LOW 0x25d5…104b · 123d ago

Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?excluded

SELL Yes @ 70¢$30.7k

MED 0x25d5…104b · 128d ago

Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?excluded

BUY Yes @ 77¢$33.7k

LOW 0x25d5…104b · 128d ago

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