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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +17.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+17.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$147.9k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±37.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$21.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.32M volume · 3,852 trades · since Oct 19, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$21.3k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
69%
36 closed
Wallet age · markets
370d
35 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +17.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Nick Shirley attend the 2026 State of the Union address? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99¢ | $11.4k | excluded |
 US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 83¢ | $16.6k | called |
 Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 99.2¢ | $20.1k | excluded |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 93¢ | $99.8k 5.4× usual |
called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x249722…