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agagyu

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.0 wins, so it did -4.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-4.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$52.3k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$31.7k
Last 30 days −$431 · $1.66M volume · 2,952 trades · since Jun 22, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$32.4k
Open P&L · 24 positions
−$771
Closed-position win rate
90%
180 closed
Wallet age · markets
489d
202 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other100.0-4.0 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $12.8k1% 189d agoexcluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ $10.7k100% 199d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?LOW SELL No @ 96¢ $12.7k4% 199d agomissed
US forces enter Iran by April 30?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢ $16.0k100% 200d agoexcluded

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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x2136af…