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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.7 wins, so it did +6.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -3.8 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+6.5 pts
Called / graded
3/5
Expected from price
2.7
Flagged volume
$161.3k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.1 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$27k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? at 52¢) and the edge is -3.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
60% vs 53% · n=5
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$61.8k
Last 30 days −$12.8k · $2.74M volume · 2,046 trades · since May 14, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$251.0k
Open P&L · 179 positions
−$304.0k
Closed-position win rate
75%
266 closed
Wallet age · markets
163d
443 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 3 | 2.7 | +6.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 37¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $14.9k | missed |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW SELL Yes @ 57¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $12.1k | missed |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-10? | LOW BUY Yes @ 60¢ | $15.7k | called |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04? | LOW BUY Yes @ 52¢ | $24.0k | called |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | LOW BUY No @ 51¢ | $34.9k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | LOW BUY Yes @ 56¢ | $25.7k | called |
| Spread: Spain (-2.5) | LOW BUY Spain @ 59¢ | $10.9k | missed |
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