ps5

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +6.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?+$1,425Yes · avg 85¢ → 94.5¢ · $14.2k · 1 proven with, 0 against Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?+$5Yes · avg 15¢ → 28¢ · $11

Price-adjusted edge

+6.0 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.9

Flagged volume

$60.0k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.7 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$16.8k

Last 30 days −$23.7k · $2.89M volume · 4,458 trades · since Nov 10, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$23.5k

Open P&L · 18 positions

−$6,319

Closed-position win rate

62%

248 closed

Wallet age · markets

713d

252 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	1	0.9	+6.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$21.0k	0%	86d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 93¢	$13.6k	7%	102d ago	missed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 75¢	$15.0k	75%	122d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	LOW BUY No @ 94¢	$10.3k	94%	184d ago	called

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$21.0k

LOW ps5 · 86d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed

SELL Yes @ 93¢$13.6k

LOW ps5 · 102d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 75¢$15.0k

LOW ps5 · 122d ago

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?called

BUY No @ 94¢$10.3k

LOW ps5 · 184d ago

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