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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did -67.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-67.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.7
Flagged volume
$504.4k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±47.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$48.9k
Last 30 days +$0 · $647.4k volume · 8 trades · since Jul 16, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$48.9k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
67%
3 closed
Wallet age · markets
100d
3 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | -67.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | HIGH SELL Spain @ 99.8¢ | $279.2k | excluded |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | HIGH BUY Spain @ 60¢ | $166.6k | called |
| France vs. England: Team to Win | MED BUY France @ 67¢ | $58.7k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x1d8172…