firegold

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.1 wins, so it did -6.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?+$5,645Yes · avg 76¢ → 98.2¢ · $25.0k Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?+$6,967Yes · avg 65¢ → 94.5¢ · $22.7k · 1 proven with, 0 against Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?+$2,430Yes · avg 84¢ → 96.9¢ · $17.7k No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?+$1,232Yes · avg 81¢ → 97.4¢ · $7,499 Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?+$289Yes · avg 63¢ → 67¢ · $4,642 Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?+$687No · avg 74¢ → 91.5¢ · $3,568 Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?+$325Yes · avg 75¢ → 84¢ · $3,029 No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?+$123Yes · avg 77¢ → 80¢ · $2,583

Price-adjusted edge

-6.2 pts

Called / graded

1/2

Expected from price

1.1

Flagged volume

$30.1k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±26.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$30.6k

Last 30 days +$10.2k · $2.41M volume · 14,890 trades · since Jan 25, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$101.0k

Open P&L · 134 positions

−$9,207

Closed-position win rate

81%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

273d

677 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Economy	1	0	0.2	-23.0 pts
Other	1	1	0.9	+10.5 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result	Open on Polymarket
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 77¢	$18.5k	23%	94d ago	missed
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 89¢	$11.7k	89%	219d ago	called

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?missed

SELL Yes @ 77¢$18.5k

LOW firegold · 94d ago

Will Trump visit China by April 30?called

BUY No @ 89¢$11.7k

LOW firegold · 219d ago

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