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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.4 wins, so it did -18.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-18.5 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.4
Flagged volume
$48.1k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$364.4k
Last 30 days +$0 · $2.51M volume · 1,115 trades · since Feb 25, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$501.2k
Open P&L · 7 positions
−$136.8k
Closed-position win rate
50%
8 closed
Wallet age · markets
241d
15 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 0 | 0.4 | -18.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 25¢ | $10.0k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 12¢ | $10.1k | missed |
 US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 11¢ | $12.6k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 10¢ | $15.3k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x1caa6a…