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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 0.4 wins, so it did +18.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+18.9 pts
Called / graded
1/3
Expected from price
0.4
Flagged volume
$156.2k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$16.2k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.87M volume · 592 trades · since Jan 24, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$39.1k
Open P&L · 7 positions
−$54.1k
Closed-position win rate
83%
89 closed
Wallet age · markets
274d
93 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 3 | 1 | 0.4 | +18.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 11¢ | $10.6k | missed |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 16¢ | $15.6k | missed |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 16¢ | $15.8k | called |
 Warriors vs. Jazz | LOW BUY Warriors @ 91.3¢ | $27.7k | excluded |
 US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢ | $16.6k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ | $24.8k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 98.8¢ | $23.6k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ | $21.5k | excluded |
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