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alextalley

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?+$38.7kNo · avg 42¢ → 88¢ · $73.9k · 1 proven with, 0 againstWill the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?+$429Yes · avg 35¢ → 36¢ · $10.4kWill Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?+$2Yes · avg 36¢ → 37¢ · $74
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$225.2k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$130.3k
Last 30 days +$6,013 · $794.9k volume · 162 trades · since Aug 12, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$91.5k
Open P&L · 3 positions
+$39.1k
Closed-position win rate
51%
49 closed
Wallet age · markets
804d
52 markets traded

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResultOpen on Polymarket
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW SELL No @ 99¢ $75.1k
6.8× usual
1% 100d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW SELL No @ 99.6¢ $75.5k
6.8× usual
0% 114d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 75¢ $10.3k75% 114d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢ $10.3k0% 114d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 70¢ $11.4k70% 115d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢ $21.4k1% 115d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW BUY No @ 50¢ $10.8k50% 167d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW BUY No @ 45¢ $10.4k45% 171d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?excluded
SELL No @ 99¢$75.1k
LOW alextalley · 100d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?excluded
SELL No @ 99.6¢$75.5k
LOW alextalley · 114d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?called
BUY No @ 75¢$10.3k
LOW alextalley · 114d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?excluded
SELL No @ 99.7¢$10.3k
LOW alextalley · 114d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?called
BUY No @ 70¢$11.4k
LOW alextalley · 115d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?excluded
SELL No @ 99.3¢$21.4k
LOW alextalley · 115d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?called
BUY No @ 50¢$10.8k
LOW alextalley · 167d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?called
BUY No @ 45¢$10.4k
LOW alextalley · 171d ago

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