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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did +5.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -10.6 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+5.1 pts
Called / graded
1/6
Expected from price
0.7
Flagged volume
$109.2k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±13.0 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$52k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 16¢) and the edge is -10.6 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
17% vs 12% · n=6
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$49.9k
Last 30 days +$0 · $2.13M volume · 221 trades · since Apr 12, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$49.9k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
57%
7 closed
Wallet age · markets
195d
7 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 1 | 0.7 | +5.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 7.2¢ | $11.7k | missed |
 Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 8.7¢ | $14.1k | missed |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 9.3¢ | $12.5k | missed |
 Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 12¢ | $18.7k | missed |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 16¢ | $26.1k | missed |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | MED BUY Yes @ 16¢ | $26.2k | called |
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