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+$2,232No · avg 84¢ → 95.8¢ · $18.2k+$1,265No · avg 90.4¢ → 97.7¢ · $17.0k+$38No · avg 94.3¢ → 94.7¢ · $11.3k+$148No · avg 82¢ → 86¢ · $3,074
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 5.3 wins, so it did -38.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-38.2 pts
Called / graded
3/6
Expected from price
5.3
Flagged volume
$205.6k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±12.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$32k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? at 74¢) and the edge is -51.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
60–80¢
100% vs 76% · n=2
80–100¢
25% vs 94% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$46.2k
Last 30 days +$1,781 · $650.9k volume · 402 trades · since Mar 17, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$4,566
Open P&L · 7 positions
−$50.0k
Closed-position win rate
83%
23 closed
Wallet age · markets
586d
30 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 6 | 3 | 5.3 | -38.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 60¢ | $19.2k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 68¢ | $25.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 62¢ | $16.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 96¢ | $19.2k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 83¢ | $20.8k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 96¢ | $19.2k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $23.1k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 78¢ | $20.0k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 74¢ | $30.0k | called |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 96¢ | $12.5k | missed |
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