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peoplearestrange

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.7 wins, so it did -24.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-24.5 pts
Called / graded
1/3
Expected from price
1.7
Flagged volume
$1.02M
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$171.9k
Last 30 days −$1 · $3.95M volume · 2,080 trades · since Sep 10, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$237.1k
Open P&L · 24 positions
−$67.9k
Closed-position win rate
65%
66 closed
Wallet age · markets
774d
84 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other311.7-24.5 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW SELL No @ 98.9¢ $19.8k1% 117d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢ $31.7k1% 117d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW SELL No @ 97.7¢ $37.1k2% 121d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 56¢ $10.3k56% 122d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW SELL No @ 97.7¢ $63.5k
2.2× usual
2% 122d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?MED SELL No @ 96.8¢ $29.6k3% 122d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW SELL No @ 95¢ $11.8k5% 123d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW SELL No @ 73¢ $21.9k27% 130d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?MED BUY No @ 72¢ $28.8k72% 131d agocalled
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?MED SELL Yes @ 96.2¢ $32.4k4% 134d agoexcluded
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?LOW BUY Yes @ 62¢ $14.0k62% 139d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW SELL No @ 82¢ $18.1k18% 140d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?MED SELL No @ 82¢ $49.3k18% 141d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?MED SELL No @ 82¢ $61.9k
2.1× usual
18% 141d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?MED SELL No @ 84¢ $29.4k16% 142d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $49.8k1% 149d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW SELL No @ 97.2¢ $43.8k3% 150d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?MED SELL No @ 96.6¢ $72.4k
2.5× usual
3% 152d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?MED SELL No @ 96.6¢ $29.0k3% 152d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW SELL No @ 96.3¢ $23.8k4% 152d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW BUY No @ 89¢ $47.4k89% 153d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW BUY No @ 97.3¢ $92.8k
3.2× usual
97% 155d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW BUY No @ 94.9¢ $28.7k95% 155d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW BUY No @ 68¢ $31.5k68% 164d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW BUY No @ 67¢ $11.9k67% 165d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW BUY No @ 64¢ $20.0k64% 165d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?MED BUY No @ 62¢ $60.0k
2.1× usual
62% 165d agocalled
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)LOW BUY Khamzat Chimaev @ 81¢ $20.0k81% 167d agoexcluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 56¢ $14.9k56% 171d agomissed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 62¢ $12.0k62% 175d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?excluded
SELL No @ 98.9¢$19.8k
LOW peoplearestrange · 117d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?excluded
SELL No @ 98.7¢$31.7k
LOW peoplearestrange · 117d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?excluded
SELL No @ 97.7¢$37.1k
LOW peoplearestrange · 121d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?called
BUY No @ 56¢$10.3k
LOW peoplearestrange · 122d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?excluded
SELL No @ 97.7¢$63.5k
LOW peoplearestrange · 122d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?missed
SELL No @ 96.8¢$29.6k
MED peoplearestrange · 122d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?missed
SELL No @ 95¢$11.8k
LOW peoplearestrange · 123d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?missed
SELL No @ 73¢$21.9k
LOW peoplearestrange · 130d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?called
BUY No @ 72¢$28.8k
MED peoplearestrange · 131d ago
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?excluded
SELL Yes @ 96.2¢$32.4k
MED peoplearestrange · 134d ago
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?called
BUY Yes @ 62¢$14.0k
LOW peoplearestrange · 139d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?missed
SELL No @ 82¢$18.1k
LOW peoplearestrange · 140d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?missed
SELL No @ 82¢$49.3k
MED peoplearestrange · 141d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?missed
SELL No @ 82¢$61.9k
MED peoplearestrange · 141d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?missed
SELL No @ 84¢$29.4k
MED peoplearestrange · 142d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?excluded
SELL No @ 99.4¢$49.8k
LOW peoplearestrange · 149d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?excluded
SELL No @ 97.2¢$43.8k
LOW peoplearestrange · 150d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?missed
SELL No @ 96.6¢$72.4k
MED peoplearestrange · 152d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?missed
SELL No @ 96.6¢$29.0k
MED peoplearestrange · 152d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?missed
SELL No @ 96.3¢$23.8k
LOW peoplearestrange · 152d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?called
BUY No @ 89¢$47.4k
LOW peoplearestrange · 153d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?excluded
BUY No @ 97.3¢$92.8k
LOW peoplearestrange · 155d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?called
BUY No @ 94.9¢$28.7k
LOW peoplearestrange · 155d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?called
BUY No @ 68¢$31.5k
LOW peoplearestrange · 164d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?called
BUY No @ 67¢$11.9k
LOW peoplearestrange · 165d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?called
BUY No @ 64¢$20.0k
LOW peoplearestrange · 165d ago
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?called
BUY No @ 62¢$60.0k
MED peoplearestrange · 165d ago
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)excluded
BUY Khamzat Chimaev @ 81¢$20.0k
LOW peoplearestrange · 167d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?missed
BUY No @ 56¢$14.9k
LOW peoplearestrange · 171d ago
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?missed
BUY No @ 62¢$12.0k
LOW peoplearestrange · 175d ago

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