FDTpuissance

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did +8.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?+$1,786Yes · avg 85¢ → 91.5¢ · $26.8k Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?+$1,266No · avg 87¢ → 97.5¢ · $11.7k Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?+$289Yes · avg 94¢ → 96.7¢ · $10.3k Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?+$557No · avg 87¢ → 96.6¢ · $5,603 Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?−$27Yes · avg 75¢ → 74¢ · $4,023 Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?−$22Yes · avg 81¢ → 80¢ · $3,542 Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?−$18Yes · avg 88¢ → 88¢ · $3,062 Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?+$24Yes · avg 96.2¢ → 97¢ · $2,910

Price-adjusted edge

+8.2 pts

Called / graded

2/2

Expected from price

1.8

Flagged volume

$45.0k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.2 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$28.2k

Last 30 days −$176 · $653.6k volume · 286 trades · since Sep 30, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$26.2k

Open P&L · 12 positions

+$2,376

Closed-position win rate

97%

58 closed

Wallet age · markets

389d

70 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	1	0.9	+12.0 pts
Politics	1	1	1.0	+4.4 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$24.9k 2.5× usual	100%	200d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW BUY No @ 88¢	$10.0k	88%	200d ago	called
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?	LOW BUY No @ 95.6¢	$10.0k	96%	286d ago	called

US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$24.9k

LOW FDTpuissance · 200d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?called

BUY No @ 88¢$10.0k

LOW FDTpuissance · 200d ago

Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?called

BUY No @ 95.6¢$10.0k

LOW FDTpuissance · 286d ago

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