dotethguy

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?+$8,835No · avg 50¢ → 79¢ · $23.8k Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?−$37Yes · avg 92¢ → 91.5¢ · $6,822 Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?+$50Yes · avg 67¢ → 68¢ · $6,750 · 1 proven with, 0 against Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?−$8,835Yes · avg 50¢ → 21¢ · $6,165

Price-adjusted edge

—

Called / graded

0/0

Expected from price

0.0

Flagged volume

$215.0k

Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$11.1k

Last 30 days +$13 · $1.42M volume · 1,652 trades · since Aug 20, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$11.1k

Open P&L · 4 positions

+$13

Closed-position win rate

71%

337 closed

Wallet age · markets

795d

317 markets traded

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$14.9k	99%	144d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	LOW SELL No @ 98¢	$10.1k	2%	182d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$40.0k 2.0× usual	100%	183d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$55.0k 2.7× usual	100%	185d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.1¢	$10.2k	1%	185d ago	excluded
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$20.0k	100%	190d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢	$20.0k	100%	198d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢	$25.0k	100%	199d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.4¢	$19.9k	1%	200d ago	excluded

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.4¢$14.9k

LOW dotethguy · 144d ago

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?excluded

SELL No @ 98¢$10.1k

LOW dotethguy · 182d ago

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 99.9¢$40.0k

LOW dotethguy · 183d ago

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$55.0k

LOW dotethguy · 185d ago

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.1¢$10.2k

LOW dotethguy · 185d ago

Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$20.0k

LOW dotethguy · 190d ago

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.9¢$20.0k

LOW dotethguy · 198d ago

US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.7¢$25.0k

LOW dotethguy · 199d ago

US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.4¢$19.9k

LOW dotethguy · 200d ago

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