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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 7 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 6.2 wins, so it did +9.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +8.4 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+9.5 pts
Called / graded
7/8
Expected from price
6.2
Flagged volume
$655.8k
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±11.3 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$9k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 7 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? at 82¢) and the edge is +8.4 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 9% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 88% · n=7
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$2,712
Last 30 days −$2 · $111.94M volume · 64,108 trades · since May 13, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$1.22M
Open P&L · 17 positions
−$244.3k
Closed-position win rate
49%
150 closed
Wallet age · markets
164d
144 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 8 | 7 | 6.2 | +9.5 pts |
History
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x08fff5…