0x082b…ce49

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.5 wins, so it did -25.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

-25.1 pts

Called / graded

1/2

Expected from price

1.5

Flagged volume

$127.0k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±29.4 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$13.9k

Last 30 days +$0 · $397.2k volume · 125 trades · since Oct 19, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$13.5k

Open P&L · 9 positions

−$27.4k

Closed-position win rate

96%

71 closed

Wallet age · markets

370d

78 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	2	1	1.5	-25.1 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 63¢	$21.1k	63%	254d ago	missed
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 98.8¢	$21.1k	1%	254d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 83¢	$17.7k	83%	264d ago	excluded
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 87¢	$15.1k	87%	267d ago	called
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$15.1k	0%	267d ago	excluded
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?	LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢	$14.7k	97%	271d ago	called
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW SELL No @ 98.5¢	$11.0k	2%	324d ago	excluded
Xi Jinping out in 2025?	LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢	$11.0k	99%	328d ago	excluded

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?missed

BUY No @ 63¢$21.1k

LOW 0x082b…ce49 · 254d ago

US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?excluded

SELL No @ 98.8¢$21.1k

LOW 0x082b…ce49 · 254d ago

US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?excluded

BUY No @ 83¢$17.7k

LOW 0x082b…ce49 · 264d ago

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?called

BUY No @ 87¢$15.1k

LOW 0x082b…ce49 · 267d ago

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?excluded

SELL No @ 99.8¢$15.1k

LOW 0x082b…ce49 · 267d ago

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?called

BUY No @ 96.9¢$14.7k

LOW 0x082b…ce49 · 271d ago

Xi Jinping out in 2025?excluded

SELL No @ 98.5¢$11.0k

LOW 0x082b…ce49 · 324d ago

Xi Jinping out in 2025?excluded

BUY No @ 98.7¢$11.0k

LOW 0x082b…ce49 · 328d ago

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