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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.1 wins, so it did +92.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+92.5 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.1
Flagged volume
$371.1k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±26.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$944
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.27M volume · 141 trades · since Mar 13, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$944
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
65%
20 closed
Wallet age · markets
225d
20 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.1 | +92.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW SELL No @ 92.5¢ | $20.3k | called |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW SELL No @ 96.6¢ | $14.5k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | LOW BUY No @ 96.6¢ | $14.5k | called |
 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ | $51.7k | excluded |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | MED SELL No @ 83¢ | $61.0k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | MED SELL No @ 86¢ | $69.1k | missed |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | MED BUY No @ 87¢ | $140.0k 2.7× usual |
called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x073acf…