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What this means. A wallet put $11.2k on Yes, at a price that gave it a 56% chance. It lost. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$11.2k
BUY Yes @ 56¢ · 20,000 shares
Size ≥ $10kFresh walletSports
What happened
Wallet hovistomaradona took Yes (buy) for $11.2k at an average 56¢. At that price the market implied a 56% chance for that side. The market resolved No, so this flag missed it.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $11.2k+0
Fresh wallet (new or ≤5 markets)+2
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 56¢ means
56%chance the market gave
−127American odds
$1.00paid per share if Yes wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 56¢
- Implied odds
- 56.0%
- As American odds
- −127 no vig
- Size
- $11.2k
- Placed
- Oct 24, 01:41 EDT
- Market close
- Oct 24, 08:00 EDT
- Result
- No
- Counts toward score
- yes
- Wallet
- hovistomaradona
- Tx
- 0xc6bebc1b…
This wallet's graded record
0/1-56.0 pts
expected 0.6 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -56 ptsYes price · entry 56¢ · resolved No
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-24? | LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ | $10.8k | excluded |
| Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-24? | LOW BUY Yes @ 32¢ | $12.7k | excluded |
| Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-24? | LOW BUY Yes @ 56¢ | $14.3k | missed |
Same game on Kalshi
Kalshi is a separate US exchange for the same kind of yes/no prices. These are large trades or sudden odds moves we flagged there on this same game. Kalshi doesn't show who traded.
| NO Vallecano odds move | $14.9k | 93¢ | 2h ago |
| YES Elche odds move | $113.7k | 80¢ | 2h ago |