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What this means. A wallet put $165.4k on not Over, at a price that gave it a 22% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$165.4k
SELL Over @ 78¢ · 211,997 shares
Size ≥ $100kUnderdog sideLate (<1h before start)4.3× this wallet's usual betSports
What happened
Wallet bluemario took Over (sell) for $165.4k at an average 78¢. At that price the market implied a 22% chance for that side. The market resolved Under. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
MEDSize $165.4k+2
Underdog side (implied < 35%)+1
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
- Entry price
- 78¢
- Implied odds
- 22.0%
- As American odds
- +355 no vig
- Size
- $165.4k
- Placed
- Oct 22, 12:56 EDT
- Market close
- Oct 22, 12:45 EDT
- Result
- Under
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- bluemario
- Tx
- 0xc29587ba…
This wallet's graded record
0/1-50.0 pts
expected 0.5 from price
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Entry to resolution
Grade +78 ptsOver price · entry 78¢ · resolved Under · a sell, so a falling price is the whale's way
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Other flags on this market
Market page →| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 KKS Lech Poznań vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 | MED BUY Over @ 78¢ | $191.0k 4.7× usual |
excluded |
| KKS Lech Poznań vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 | HIGH BUY Over @ 57¢ | $270.8k 7.1× usual |
excluded |