← Live flags
What this means. A wallet put $17.7k on James Madison, at a price that gave it a 88% chance. The market hasn't resolved yet. This wallet has only 13 graded bets, too few to judge. Big isn't the same as right: across all whales, big bets lose to the price slightly. Information, not advice. How to use this →
$17.7k
BUY James Madison @ 88¢ · 20,121 shares
Size ≥ $10kHeavy favoriteLate (<1h before start)Sports
What happened
Wallet Parz1vaI took James Madison (buy) for $17.7k at an average 88¢. At that price the market implied a 88% chance for that side. The market resolved Appalachian State. This trade isn't graded: it happened after the market closed, so it's a settlement trade, not a call. It was placed less than an hour before the market started or closed, so it's excluded from the scoreboard.
Why this was flagged
LOWSize $17.7k+0
HIGH ≥ 4 points · MED 2–3 · LOW below 2. Labels don't affect grading. Methodology
What 88¢ means
88%chance the market gave
−733American odds
$1.00paid per share if James Madison wins
Shares pay $1 if the outcome happens, $0 if not. More · Data only, not advice.
- Entry price
- 88¢
- Implied odds
- 88.0%
- As American odds
- −733 no vig
- Size
- $17.7k
- Placed
- Oct 22, 19:24 EDT
- Market close
- Oct 22, 19:00 EDT
- Result
- Appalachian State
- Counts toward score
- no
- Wallet
- Parz1vaI
- Tx
- 0x37f2d1a4…
This wallet's graded record
11/13+18.3 pts
expected 8.6 from price
Share this receipt
Entry to resolution
Grade -88 ptsJames Madison price · entry 88¢ · resolved Appalachian State
Grade = result (100 or 0) minus the price paid. Polymarket price history. Information, not advice.
Same game on Kalshi
Kalshi is a separate US exchange for the same kind of yes/no prices. These are large trades or sudden odds moves we flagged there on this same game. Kalshi doesn't show who traded.
| YES James Madison | $21.5k | 86¢ | 1d ago |
| YES James Madison | $17.8k | 84¢ | 1d ago |
| NO Appalachian St. | $10.8k | 86¢ | 1d ago |
| YES James Madison | $24.8k | 90¢ | 1d ago |
| YES James Madison | $10.2k | 79¢ | 3d ago |