Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$1,117
Return on staked
+32.9%
Bets
32/34 won
Edge vs price
+12.8 pts ±5.0
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +10.0 pts (17/17). Newer half: +15.5 pts (15/17).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Oct 30, 09:58 EDTJul 21, 11:21 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | 93¢ | called | 94d ago |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | 96¢ | called | 95d ago |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | 88¢ | called | 99d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | 95¢ | called | 100d ago |
| Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? | 90¢ | called | 107d ago |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 94¢ | called | 109d ago |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? | 97¢ | called | 114d ago |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | 85¢ | called | 116d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | 94¢ | called | 124d ago |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 17¢ | called | 159d ago |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 5¢ | missed | 160d ago |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 17¢ | called | 160d ago |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 11¢ | missed | 160d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 89¢ | called | 185d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | 90¢ | called | 229d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.