Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$58
Return on staked
+5.8%
Bets
4/10 won
Edge vs price
+2.0 pts ±14.5
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -14.1 pts (1/5). Newer half: +18.1 pts (3/5).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Mar 31, 05:15 EDTJul 19, 07:21 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | 42¢ | missed | 97d ago |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | 46¢ | called | 101d ago |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | 46¢ | called | 101d ago |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 22¢ | called | 102d ago |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | 53¢ | missed | 110d ago |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 5¢ | missed | 118d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 62¢ | called | 184d ago |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | 32¢ | missed | 198d ago |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | 34¢ | missed | 205d ago |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | 38¢ | missed | 207d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.